About This Module

Topics: Climate, Greenhouse Gases, CO₂ -driven Changes, Ice Caps, Ocean Sea Levels
Grade Levels: 9-12

Scenario

Today’s high school students were not born in 1978. This must seem like a long time ago, but yet scientists were already predicting that global warming would eventually lead to a disintegration of Earth’s polar ice caps and shelves. They also warned that the melting of the world’s ice caps would have far-reaching effects—far beyond a mere loss of ice in places where most of you will never travel.

In 1978 scientists were putting together climate models based on historical data and emerging technological advances such as new satellite data. They continued to gather data, to create new technologies, and to discover more about the complicated mechanisms of ice masses.

New spaceborne data, research data gathered in the polar regions, and climate models indicate that the 1978 prediction might be coming true. And it might be unstoppable.

The Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is losing ice four times faster than it was a decade ago. Numerous ice shelves in the Antarctic and Arctic collapse and drift out to sea. The Larsen A ice shelf disintegrated in 1995; the Larsen B ice shelf disintegrated in 2002. After being stable for nearly 12,000 years, the Larsen B ice shelf disappeared in a single season.

In the Arctic region temperatures are rising twice as fast as elsewhere in the world. Ice is thinning, melting, and collapsing into the sea. The largest block of ice in the Arctic, the Ward Hunt ice shelf, started to crack in 2000. Within two years it had split all the way through. The Arctic polar ice cap is contracting at a rate of 9 percent per decade. At this rate Arctic summers could be ice free by the end of this century.

The consequences of the loss of Earth’s ice sheets and shelves are far-reaching. New studies examine how the disintegration of ice sheets could result in a rise in global sea levels. Other research attempts to estimate the level of rise should particular ice sheets disintegrate and melt in open ocean waters. Satellite images of more than 200 glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula showed that they were melting approximately 12 percent faster in 2003 than they were in 1993.

The melting in the Arctic, for example, will affect natural ecosystems of polar bears, whales, and seals. It will change migration patterns and adversely affect the native people who depend on the ecosystem.

Without the cooling effect of the layers of ice, Earth will absorb more sunlight, and temperatures will warm even more. Increased temperatures will produce faster melting, which will contribute to sea level rise, threaten low-lying areas around the globe, cause coastal flooding, and contaminate freshwater supplies. Scientists now predict a 3-foot sea rise by 2100. This would flood approximately 22,400 square miles along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States.

“Warming Arctic Affects Wheat in Kansas.” That headline would be a lot closer to home, wouldn’t it? If Kansas becomes 4 degrees warmer in the winter without Arctic ice, which creates cold air masses that slide southward, wheat farmers wouldn’t have the needed freezing temperatures to grow winter wheat. And warmer summer days would mean 10 percent less moisture in Kansas cropland soils.

Scientists continue to measure, study, and research this complicated topic in order to better predict possible changes. They also look to future strategies for remediation of the problems and important solutions to complex predicaments.

Task: Ice Caps and Sea Levels

As a research scientist working for the U.S. Panel on Global Climate Change Research, you and your colleagues have been collecting data in the field for months. Research on varying aspects of Earth’s diverse ecosystems has been studied, and your colleagues are just now gathering to share their experiences and their preliminary findings with the rest of the group.

Your fellow scientists are also friends. They are returning from Earth’s deserts, where they monitored temperature ranges, and from the world’s oceans after charting sea surface temperatures, ocean currents, and deepwater organisms. Plants and animals have been studied for possible global climate effects. Researchers in the rainforest have tracked species diversity. Epidemiologists have concentrated on human health in an effort to improve health conditions for Earth’s human inhabitants.

You are glad to see them, but everyone knows what a huge task lies ahead. With a major international conference looming, it’s time for all of you to analyze the data to formulate a comprehensive report on global climate change on Earth.

This conference requires more than a standard report presenting data and displaying results in tables and graphs. Analysis of the data will be required to fully present an accurate picture of the state of the planet’s climate and trends that have been the focus of heated controversy and debate for the last decade. As a scientist, you naturally look at the data from purely objective perspectives.

You have been part of a team of scientists studying changes in Earth’s ice caps and rising sea levels. Your team gathers to begin work on analyzing its research in order to answer questions for the upcoming conference. Some of those questions will include:

• What changes have been occurring with Earth’s important ice caps?
• What role does global warming seem to have on the ice sheets and sea levels?
• What are some of the predictions for the future if these trends continue?
• What are some of the consequences?

Sample Rubrics

The developing rubrics page in the Problem Based Learning section provides a content-specific rubric for the Ice Caps and Sea Levels module under the Sample Rubrics heading.

Skill Building Activities

The following activites can be used to help your students learn how they can use NASA satellite data resources to solve the problem-based learning task presented.

Title: Ocean Currents and Sea Surface Temperature

Estimated time for completing activity: 50 minutes

Learning outcomes for this activity:

• Know how differential heating of Earth results in circulation patterns in the atmosphere and oceans that globally distribute the heat.
• Know the relationship between the rotation of Earth and the circular motions of the ocean currents and air pressure centers.
• Make predictions by linking current scientific satellite data concerns about global climate change.
• Produce graphs using graphing software.
• Observe graphical changes in parameters.
• Identify relationships between parameters.
• Make and defend conclusions based on evidence.
• Understand how calculations can be performed on data expressed as maps, such as averaging or subtracting.
• Observe changes in snow and ice over a 10-year period and draw conclusions about trends indicated by the observations.

Title: Evidence of Change Near the Arctic Circle

Estimated time for completing activity: 50 minutes

Learning outcomes for this activity:

• Produce graphs using graphing software.
• Observe graphical changes in parameters.
• Identify relationships between parameters.
• Make and defend conclusions based on evidence.

Title: Studying Snow and Ice Changes

Estimated Time for Completing Activity: 1-2 periods

Learning outcomes for this activity:

• Understand how calculations can be performed on data expressed as maps, such as averaging or subtracting.
• Observe changes in snow and ice over a 10-year period and draw conclusions about trends indicated by the observations.

Learning Objectives

Alignment of Learning Objectives and Standards: Ice Caps and Sea Levels as Key Indicators